Quantitative Process Analysis 3n6362
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Lecture 2 – Quantitative Process Analysis I
1
Process Analysis Process identification Process architecture Process architecture Conformance and Conformance and performance insights performance insights
Process discovery
As-is process As-is process model model
Process monitoring and controlling
Process analysis
Executable Executable process process model model
Process implementation
Insights on Insights on weaknesses and weaknesses and their impact their impact
To-be process To-be process model model
Process redesign
Process Analysis Techniques Qualitative analysis • • • •
Value-Added & Waste Analysis Root-Cause Analysis Pareto Analysis Issue
Quantitative Analysis • Flow analysis • Queuing analysis • Simulation
Process performance If you had to choose between two services, you would typically choose the one that is: • F… • C… • B…
Process performance If you had to choose between two services, you would typically choose the one that is: • Faster • Cheaper • Better
Process performance Time
Process performance
Quality
Cost
• A great deal of BPM is about continuously assessing and improving process performance, particularly across three dimensions • time, • cost and • quality. In order to improve performance, we first have to measure it, and this is where process performance measures come into play. Identifying which performance measures are most relevant for a given process is an art on its own.
Time measures Processing time
Time between start and completion of a process instance
Time taken by value-adding activities
Cycle time Waiting time
Time taken by non-value-adding activities
7
Cycle time efficiency
Processing Time
Cycle Time
Cycle Time Efficiency
8
Cost measures Processing cost
Cost of valueadding activities
Cost of a process instance
PerInstance Cost Cost of waste
Cost of nonvalue-adding activities
9
Typical components of cost
Material cost •Cost of tangible or intangible resources used per process instance
Resource cost •Cost of person-hours employed per process instance 10
Resource utilization
Time spent per resource on process work
Time available per resource for process work
Resource utilization
Resource utilization = 60% è on average resources are idle 40% of their allocated time 11
Resource utilization vs. waiting time
Resource utilization
Waiting time
Typically, when resource utilization > 90% è Waiting time increases steeply 12
Quality
Product quality • Defect rate
Delivery quality • On-time delivery rate • Cycle time variance
Customer satisfaction • Customer score 13
Identifying performance measures For each process, formulate process performance objectives Customer should be served always in a timely manner
For each objective, identify variable(s) and aggregation method è performance measure Variable: customer served in < 30 min.
Aggregation method: percentage
Measure: ST30 = % of customers served in < 30 min.
For each performance measure, define targets ST30 > 99% 14
Balanced scorecard Cost measures
Quality & time measures
Quality & time measures
Financial
Customer
Internal business process
Innovation & learning
Technology leadership, Staff satisfaction 15
Process performance reference models Supply Chain Operations Reference Model (SCOR) • Performance measures for supply chain management processes
American Productivity and Quality Council (APQC) • Performance measures and benchmarks for processes in the Process Classification Framework (PCF)
IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) • Performance measures for IT service management processes
16
Flow analysis
Process model
Process performance Performance of each activity
17
Flow Analysis • Flow analysis a technique to estimate and understand the performance of a process, given a process model and performance measures of the activities in the process. • For example if we are given a process model and the cycle time of each activity in the process, we can use flow analysis to calculate the performance of the process. • In doing so, we can understand where the performance of the process is coming from, that is, which activities in the process affect the most to the performance of the overall process. • In the following, we will show how flow analysis works using time measures, but we can do the same for cost and quality measures as discussed in the recommended readings.
Flow analysis of cycle time 1 day
1 day
3 days
1 day 3 days
2 days
Cycle time = X days
19
Sequence – Example
• What is the average cycle time?
Cycle time = 10 + 20 = 30 20
Example: Alternative Paths
• What is the average cycle time? 50% 90%
50% 10%
Cycle time = 10 + (20+10)/2 = 25 Cycle time = 10 + 0.9*20+0.1*10 = 29
Example: Parallel paths
• What is the average cycle time?
Cycle time = 10 + 20 = 30
Example: Rework loop
• What is the average cycle time?
80% 100% 1%
0% 99% 20%
Cycle time =+10 + 20 ==30 Cycle time = 10 20/0.01 2010 Cycle time = 10 + 20/0.8 = 35
Flow analysis equations for cycle time T2
T1
...
CT = T1+T2+…+ TN
TN
T1
p1
T2
p2
CT = p1*T1+p2*T2+…+ pn*TN
...
pn
TN
T1
CT = max(T1, T2,…, TN)
T2 ... TN
1-r
T r
CT = T / (1-r)
Flow analysis of cycle time 1 day
1 day
20%
60%
80% 3 days
1 day 3 days
1/0.8
max(1,3)
3
40 %
2 days
0.6*1+0.4*2
Cycle time = 1.25 + 3 + 3 + 1.4 = 8.65 days 25
Flow analysis of processing time
20%
0.5 hour
60%
2 hours
80% 2 hours
2/0.8
2 hours 3 hours
max(0.5,3)
2
40 %
0.5 mins.
0.6*2+0.4*0.5
Processing time = 2.5 + 3 + 2 + 1.4 = 8.9 hours Cycle time efficiency = 8.9 hours / 8.65 days = 12.9%
26
Exercise: Calculate CTE of the following process
Flow analysis: scope and limitations • Flow analysis for cycle time calculation • Other applications: • Calculating cost-per-process-instance • Calculating error rates at the process level • Estimating capacity requirements
• But it has its limitations…
Limitation 1: Not all Models are Structured
Limitation 2: Fixed arrival rate capacity • Cycle time analysis does not consider: • The rate at which new process instances are created (arrival rate) • The number of available resources
• Higher arrival rate at fixed resource capacity è high resource contention è higher activity waiting times (longer queues) è higher activity cycle time è higher overall cycle time • The slower you are, the more people have to queue up… • and vice-versa
Cycle Time & Work-In-Progress • WIP = (average) Work-In-Process • Number of cases that are running (started but not yet completed) • E.g. # of active and unfilled orders in an order-to-cash process
• WIP is a form of waste (cf. 7+1 sources of waste) • Little’s Formula: WIP = λ·CT • λ = arrival rate (number of new cases per time unit) • CT = cycle time
Exercise A fast-food restaurant receives on average 1200 customers per day (between 10:00 and 22:00). During peak times (12:00-15:00 and 18:00-21:00), the restaurant receives around 900 customers in total, and 90 customers can be found in the restaurant (on average) at a given point in time. At non-peak times, the restaurant receives 300 customers in total, and 30 customers can be found in the restaurant (on average) at a given point in time. 1. What is the average time that a customer spends in the restaurant during peak times? 2. What is the average time that a customer spends in the restaurant during non-peak times?
Exercise (cont.) 3.
The restaurant plans to launch a marketing campaign to attract more customers. However, the restaurant’s capacity is limited and becomes too full during peak times. What can the restaurant do to address this issue without investing in extending its building?
1
Process Analysis Process identification Process architecture Process architecture Conformance and Conformance and performance insights performance insights
Process discovery
As-is process As-is process model model
Process monitoring and controlling
Process analysis
Executable Executable process process model model
Process implementation
Insights on Insights on weaknesses and weaknesses and their impact their impact
To-be process To-be process model model
Process redesign
Process Analysis Techniques Qualitative analysis • • • •
Value-Added & Waste Analysis Root-Cause Analysis Pareto Analysis Issue
Quantitative Analysis • Flow analysis • Queuing analysis • Simulation
Process performance If you had to choose between two services, you would typically choose the one that is: • F… • C… • B…
Process performance If you had to choose between two services, you would typically choose the one that is: • Faster • Cheaper • Better
Process performance Time
Process performance
Quality
Cost
• A great deal of BPM is about continuously assessing and improving process performance, particularly across three dimensions • time, • cost and • quality. In order to improve performance, we first have to measure it, and this is where process performance measures come into play. Identifying which performance measures are most relevant for a given process is an art on its own.
Time measures Processing time
Time between start and completion of a process instance
Time taken by value-adding activities
Cycle time Waiting time
Time taken by non-value-adding activities
7
Cycle time efficiency
Processing Time
Cycle Time
Cycle Time Efficiency
8
Cost measures Processing cost
Cost of valueadding activities
Cost of a process instance
PerInstance Cost Cost of waste
Cost of nonvalue-adding activities
9
Typical components of cost
Material cost •Cost of tangible or intangible resources used per process instance
Resource cost •Cost of person-hours employed per process instance 10
Resource utilization
Time spent per resource on process work
Time available per resource for process work
Resource utilization
Resource utilization = 60% è on average resources are idle 40% of their allocated time 11
Resource utilization vs. waiting time
Resource utilization
Waiting time
Typically, when resource utilization > 90% è Waiting time increases steeply 12
Quality
Product quality • Defect rate
Delivery quality • On-time delivery rate • Cycle time variance
Customer satisfaction • Customer score 13
Identifying performance measures For each process, formulate process performance objectives Customer should be served always in a timely manner
For each objective, identify variable(s) and aggregation method è performance measure Variable: customer served in < 30 min.
Aggregation method: percentage
Measure: ST30 = % of customers served in < 30 min.
For each performance measure, define targets ST30 > 99% 14
Balanced scorecard Cost measures
Quality & time measures
Quality & time measures
Financial
Customer
Internal business process
Innovation & learning
Technology leadership, Staff satisfaction 15
Process performance reference models Supply Chain Operations Reference Model (SCOR) • Performance measures for supply chain management processes
American Productivity and Quality Council (APQC) • Performance measures and benchmarks for processes in the Process Classification Framework (PCF)
IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) • Performance measures for IT service management processes
16
Flow analysis
Process model
Process performance Performance of each activity
17
Flow Analysis • Flow analysis a technique to estimate and understand the performance of a process, given a process model and performance measures of the activities in the process. • For example if we are given a process model and the cycle time of each activity in the process, we can use flow analysis to calculate the performance of the process. • In doing so, we can understand where the performance of the process is coming from, that is, which activities in the process affect the most to the performance of the overall process. • In the following, we will show how flow analysis works using time measures, but we can do the same for cost and quality measures as discussed in the recommended readings.
Flow analysis of cycle time 1 day
1 day
3 days
1 day 3 days
2 days
Cycle time = X days
19
Sequence – Example
• What is the average cycle time?
Cycle time = 10 + 20 = 30 20
Example: Alternative Paths
• What is the average cycle time? 50% 90%
50% 10%
Cycle time = 10 + (20+10)/2 = 25 Cycle time = 10 + 0.9*20+0.1*10 = 29
Example: Parallel paths
• What is the average cycle time?
Cycle time = 10 + 20 = 30
Example: Rework loop
• What is the average cycle time?
80% 100% 1%
0% 99% 20%
Cycle time =+10 + 20 ==30 Cycle time = 10 20/0.01 2010 Cycle time = 10 + 20/0.8 = 35
Flow analysis equations for cycle time T2
T1
...
CT = T1+T2+…+ TN
TN
T1
p1
T2
p2
CT = p1*T1+p2*T2+…+ pn*TN
...
pn
TN
T1
CT = max(T1, T2,…, TN)
T2 ... TN
1-r
T r
CT = T / (1-r)
Flow analysis of cycle time 1 day
1 day
20%
60%
80% 3 days
1 day 3 days
1/0.8
max(1,3)
3
40 %
2 days
0.6*1+0.4*2
Cycle time = 1.25 + 3 + 3 + 1.4 = 8.65 days 25
Flow analysis of processing time
20%
0.5 hour
60%
2 hours
80% 2 hours
2/0.8
2 hours 3 hours
max(0.5,3)
2
40 %
0.5 mins.
0.6*2+0.4*0.5
Processing time = 2.5 + 3 + 2 + 1.4 = 8.9 hours Cycle time efficiency = 8.9 hours / 8.65 days = 12.9%
26
Exercise: Calculate CTE of the following process
Flow analysis: scope and limitations • Flow analysis for cycle time calculation • Other applications: • Calculating cost-per-process-instance • Calculating error rates at the process level • Estimating capacity requirements
• But it has its limitations…
Limitation 1: Not all Models are Structured
Limitation 2: Fixed arrival rate capacity • Cycle time analysis does not consider: • The rate at which new process instances are created (arrival rate) • The number of available resources
• Higher arrival rate at fixed resource capacity è high resource contention è higher activity waiting times (longer queues) è higher activity cycle time è higher overall cycle time • The slower you are, the more people have to queue up… • and vice-versa
Cycle Time & Work-In-Progress • WIP = (average) Work-In-Process • Number of cases that are running (started but not yet completed) • E.g. # of active and unfilled orders in an order-to-cash process
• WIP is a form of waste (cf. 7+1 sources of waste) • Little’s Formula: WIP = λ·CT • λ = arrival rate (number of new cases per time unit) • CT = cycle time
Exercise A fast-food restaurant receives on average 1200 customers per day (between 10:00 and 22:00). During peak times (12:00-15:00 and 18:00-21:00), the restaurant receives around 900 customers in total, and 90 customers can be found in the restaurant (on average) at a given point in time. At non-peak times, the restaurant receives 300 customers in total, and 30 customers can be found in the restaurant (on average) at a given point in time. 1. What is the average time that a customer spends in the restaurant during peak times? 2. What is the average time that a customer spends in the restaurant during non-peak times?
Exercise (cont.) 3.
The restaurant plans to launch a marketing campaign to attract more customers. However, the restaurant’s capacity is limited and becomes too full during peak times. What can the restaurant do to address this issue without investing in extending its building?
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